Thanks El Niño … we hope

While it might sound like good news, it’s no time to be complacent.

Yes, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center announced this morning that they are forecasting below normal activity in the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

But let’s face it, our region is overdue for a catastrophic event.

And even with a below season being forecast, the agencies warn that it only takes one cyclone.

The NHC is forecasting 8-14 named storms – 3-6 becoming hurricanes and 1-3 or those developing into a major cyclone with winds topping 110 mph.

The chance of this scenario is 55 percent – with a 10 percent chance of an above normal season and a 35 percent chance of a near-normal one.

The last time the NHC issued a below normal level of activity was in 2015.

As a Lynnhaven Marine boater, the June 1 start of the season doesn’t seem like a time to be concerned.

The height of the season typically doesn’t crank up until September and October before a scheduled conclusion at the end of November.

It sounds like a long way away.

But NOAA officials during Thursday morning’s press conference urged people to start preparing now.

You don’t want to be looking for food, medicine, important papers, pet supplies and fuel as a hurricane gets close to making landfall.

“We’re ready more than ever,” officials said. “But we can’t stop telling people to prepare.”

The reason for a potentially relaxed season is the increasing formation of El Niño – a condition on the eastern edge of the Pacific Ocean along the equator. The effect causes more wind shear in the Caribbean and along the Atlantic coast, making it harder for cyclones to form and tearing them apart when they do.

That said, even tropical storms cause surge and flooding – the top reasons people die in and after a hurricane, according to the NHC.

While everyone should pay attention and prepare, our boating community has added stresses – what to do with your boat, how to secure it, where to store it and so much more.

As the season progresses, I’ll have more advice from our experts here at Lynnhaven to help with the process.